Times Record "Sustain Maine" op-ed series
War in Iraq and Sustainable Development at Home
March 2003
David Vail
President Bush has taken the fateful decision to defy the UN Security Council and launch a pre-emptive war against Iraq. For months it's been "all Iraq all the time" in the news, with daily speculations about the impacts of war and post-war occupation on budget deficits, oil prices, economic recovery, UN viability, Middle East stability, the war on terrorism. The unknowns, both immediate and longer-term, are overwhelming - columnist Thomas Friedman calls Bush's imperialist adventure the "Mother of all presidential gambles."
When actions have highly uncertain consequences and the worst-case outcome would be disastrous, sustainable development advocates propose that we should follow a precautionary principle. Precaution, for the Security Council majority, meant continuing aggressive inspections. America's pre-emptive invasion is also based on precautionary logic, however, Secretary Powell failed to convince the Security Council (or me) that worst-case claims about Saddam Hussein's intentions and capabilities were plausible.
Here in Maine, we've read about neighbors in the reserves being called-up and BIW ships on station in the Persian Gulf. But there has been little discussion about the consequences of war and post-war occupation for Maine. What are the likely near term and distant impacts for Maine and its people, viewed through the lens of sustainable development of our economy, our communities and the environment?
Starting with what we know, war preparations distracted federal attention from serious domestic problems. Uncertainties about war have prolonged the current economic slump by undermining consumer and investor confidence. Maine is already feeling the impact in many ways.
America's health system, to focus on one critical example, is "bruised and broken" in journalist Trudy Lieberman's words. Maine, with its aging and comparatively low-income population, badly needs federal support for its new health reform initiatives. But with Middle East preoccupations, ballooning federal deficits, and Bush's "what me worry?" attitude toward the states' budget crises, help won't be forthcoming anytime soon. When federal and state governments will not or cannot do their share, families and communities are burdened with the human costs of inadequate health care.
Looking out a few years, this prospect becomes still grimmer. Enormous national security budgets and expenditures for Iraq's occupation and reconstruction will perpetuate huge deficits as baby boomers start retiring and Social Security and Medicare costs soar. Alternatively, benefits will be slashed, leaving many older Mainers unable to fulfill their retirement dreams. Economist Paul Krugman foresees a "fiscal train wreck," with massive federal borrowing eventually driving up interest rates and "crowding out" the business investment Maine needs for future economic prosperity.
Educating Maine's young people is surely our most important investment in a sustainable future. But the prolonged economic slowdown has the state's budget in a hammerlock and severe revenue constraints will persist for years. Given dwindling federal education support, this means K-12 increases below the rate of inflation and flat university funding in the coming biennium. Prioritizing war and colonial rule in Iraq reveals the hollowness of Bush's "leave no child behind" rhetoric.
Mainers are already footing the bill for war through higher "homeland security" costs and soaring fuel prices. Near term prices will probably rise still further, but they would likely drop soon with a quick, "clean" war. But either a dirty war - Saddam torches Iraqi oil facilities - or a surge in terrorism and Middle East instability could drive oil prices to levels that would tip a shaky world economy into severe recession. These are not far-fetched scenarios.
From a sustainable development perspective, the core issue is the use of national security as a Trojan horse to justify lower clean air standards, directly affecting Maine, and to weaken commitments to conservation and clean, renewable energy. The Persian Gulf region is a vital US interest because of our gluttonous dependence on imports for over half of our petroleum. Thus, the most effective national security strategy is to invest heavily in energy conservation and renewables. This "win-win" strategy would also bring cleaner air and lower greenhouse gas emissions. What we've got instead is another attempt to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
My nagging fear is that war and its unintended consequences may undermine the community solidarity that makes Maine a special place to live. Pro- and anti-war demonstrations in recent weeks reveal our divisions regarding the justness and wisdom of a pre-emptive war without UN legitimation. As an ageing activist who came of age during the Vietnam war, I fear an erosion of the mutual respect and tolerance that are the soul of sustainable communities.
What can we do on the "home front"? Sustainable ecosystems are resilient in the face of shocks. I am certain that Maine's citizens and leaders will also show resilience. Building on our tradition of self-reliance, we will advance health system reform, fund education's "essential programs and services", and pursue energy conservation. And we will sustain a dialogue to heal divisions over war and peace.
David Vail teaches economics at Bowdoin College and is a founding member of the Maine Sustainable Development Working Group